Mathematical Models of Early Diagnosis and Prediction of Neurotoxicosis in Welding Workers

The purpose of research is a comprehensive combination of models of mathematical prediction and initial diagnosis of neurotoxicosis in welding workers, providing, acceptable for preventive medicine, and in particular for occupational pathologists, the quality of decision-making.

Methods. In the image of the basic mathematical apparatus, the technology of soft computing and, in particular, the methodology of synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules, widely used when solving problems with a similar data structure and type of fuzziness, taking into account the uncertainty of the description of the class of occupational diseases under study, is chosen. The synthesis method selected and adapted to the tasks being solved makes it possible to take into account the multiplicative effect of harmful chemicals on the human body, such as manganese, aluminum, copper, carbon monoxide and others generated by the welding process, taking into account exposure time and other significant endogenous and exogenous risk factors.

Results. The obtained models of mathematical forecasting and early diagnosis of neurotoxicosis in welding workers, in addition to the effects of aerosol, dust and fibrogenic risk factors on the human body, allow us to take into account unfavorable environmental factors of a different nature in combination with the peculiarities of individual risk factors and ergonomics of welding shops. During the final modeling and expert evaluation, it was presented that the resulting mathematical model provides confidence in the correct prognosis of the development and appearance of neurotoxicosis in welding workers at least 0,85, and early diagnosis at least 0,9.

Conclusion. Fuzzy models of mathematical forecasting and early diagnosis of neurotoxicosis in welding workers were obtained, where the primary causes of risk are industrial aerosols with a high content of chemicals, in combination with other endogenous and exogenous risk factors. It is presented that the confidence in the prognosis exceeds 0.85, and in the presence of early stages - 0,9, which allows us to recommend the results obtained in the practice of specialized occupational pathologists.

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