Diagnosis the Pathology of Extrahepatic Bile Ducts According to Endoscopic Ultrasonography Using Fuzzy Mathematical Models

The purpose of research is to improving the quality of diagnosis of obstructive pathology of extrahepatic bile ducts based on the analysis of reference schemes of reference endosonograms through the use of hybrid fuzzy mathematical models.

Methods. The main diagnostic method is endoscopic ultrasonography in combination with the methodology of synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules developed at Southwestern State University.

Results. The number of patients with cancer of the extrahepatic bile ducts and the papilla duodeni major is steadily growing and has increased 1,5-2 times over the past 20 years. The differential diagnosis of benign and malignant stenoses is particularly difficult due to the similarity of their echosemiotics. Based on expert assessments of endosonograms displaying the pathology of extrahepatic bile ducts using the methodology of synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules, a fuzzy hybrid model of differential diagnosis of the pathology under study was obtained. Based on the results of mathematical modeling and statistical tests on representative control samples, it was shown that the obtained model of differential diagnosis using reference images of reference endosonograms provides confidence in the desired diagnosis at the level of 0,93.

Conclusions. The obtained model of differential diagnosis of obstructive pathology of extrahepatic bile ducts provides confidence in decision-making at the level of 0,93, which is an acceptable quality indicator in clinical practice, providing "work" in conditions of insufficient statistics with a poorly formalized data structure.

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