Prediction of the Severity of Ischemia of the Affected Organ on the Basis of Metabolic Disorders

The purpose of research is to develop a method that allows predicting the severity of ischemia of the affected organ on the basis of metabolic disorders (PION) based on the use of such indicators as: base deficiency (DO), blood glucose (GC), potassium (K), sodium (Na), blood bicarbonate (BCC), partial CO2 voltage (PNUG), blood pH, aldosterone.

Methods. In the course of the work, an exploratory analysis was carried out using the method of group accounting of arguments (MGUA) and the theory of latent variables with the Rush model was used. As a basic mathematical apparatus, the methodology of synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules was used, which proved itself well when solving problems with a fuzzy description of the classes under study.

Results. During the research, mathematical models for predicting the severity of ischemic disorders were synthesized and appropriate membership functions were obtained to assess the severity of ischemia of the affected organ for each of the signs. Expert evaluation and mathematical modeling have shown that confidence in the correct decision-making on the prognosis of the severity of ischemia of the affected organ exceeds 0.9.

Conclusion. The developed algorithm made it possible in 90% of cases to avoid the development of cardiovascular complications in the form of myocardial infarction, acute cerebrovascular accident and gangrene of the lower extremities, which makes it possible to recommend its use in clinical practice of cardiologists and cardiovascular surgeons.

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