Prediction of the Occurrence and Development of Fatal Vascular Complications in COVID-19 Using Fuzzy Mathematical Models

The purpose of research is to develop a method for predicting the occurrence and development of thrombotic complications (thrombotic precedents) provoked by the action of a new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) on the human body, which allows improving therapeutic and diagnostic measures for patients with this pathology.

Methods. The methodology of synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules was chosen as the basic mathematical apparatus, which proved itself well in the process of solving problems with a fuzzy description of the classes under study with a data structure similar to the problem being solved in the work.

Results. In the course of the research, mathematical models for predicting the occurrence and development of thrombotic precedents were synthesized. Expert evaluation and mathematical modeling have shown that confidence in the correct decision-making on the prognosis of the occurrence and development of the studied class of thrombotic complications exceeds 0.9. The paper presents fuzzy mathematical models for predicting the occurrence and development of thrombotic precedents in people with confirmed coronavirus infection, for which the leading risk factor is secondary antiphospholipid syndrome with the occurrence of microangiopathy.

Conclusion. In the course of the conducted studies, the expediency of using the results obtained in the practice of such doctors as immunologists, infectious disease specialists, pulmonologists, cardiologists and cardiovascular surgeons was shown.

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