Method of Synthesis of Mathematical Models for Assessing the Fire Situation and the Condition of People in the Fire Zone

The purpose of the research to improve the quality of fire situation assessment with an assessment of the health status of people in the fire zone based on the use of the methodology of synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules and neural network technologies.

Methods. In the course of the conducted studies, it was shown that to improve the quality of decisions about the type and nature of fires, it is advisable to use three groups of sensors that measure the intensity of electromagnetic radiation in the ranges of ultraviolet, visible and infrared spectra, chemical composition (carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, phenols, etc.) and temperature. An analysis of the nature, nature, types and characteristics of various types of fires has shown that a detailed classification of these classes of phenomena refers to poorly formalized problems with a fuzzy data structure. The assessment of the condition of people in the fire zone also belongs to the same class of tasks. Taking into account this circumstance, the fuzzy logic of decision-making was chosen as the basic mathematical apparatus, and in particular, the methodology for the synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules in combination with neural network technologies.

Results. Using the methodology of synthesis of hybrid fuzzy decision rules as a basic mathematical theory, taking into account the specifics of the data structure, the paper proposes a method for synthesizing mathematical models for assessing the fire situation and the condition of people in the fire zone during the implementation of which, using the theory of measuring latent variables, a space of informative features is formed, fuzzy hybrid models of classification of types and nature of fires are synthesized, models of forecasting the development of the fire situation are built and models of forecasting and diagnosing the condition of people who are sent and are in the fire zone are synthesized. The effectiveness of the proposed method was tested on the task of assessing the severity of carbon monoxide poisoning of people in the fire zone.

Conclusion. The practical application of the proposed method allows us to create high-quality systems for assessing the fire situation and the condition of people in the zone of the studied class of emergency situations located on mobile and fixed platforms.

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