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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">uprinmatus</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Известия Юго-Западного государственного университета. Серия: Управление, вычислительная техника, информатика. Медицинское приборостроение</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Proceedings of the Southwest State University. Series: IT Management, Computer Science, Computer Engineering. Medical Equipment Engineering</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2223-1536</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Юго-Западный государственный университет</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21869/2223-1536-2025-15-1-170-179</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">uprinmatus-290</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ В МЕДИЦИНСКИХ И ТЕХНИЧЕСКИХ СИСТЕМАХ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>MODELING IN MEDICAL AND TECHNICAL SYSTEMS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Анализ динамики пандемий через волны передвижения: математическая модель</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Analyzing pandemic dynamics through traveling waves: a mathematical model</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Таха</surname><given-names>А. Тарик</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Taha</surname><given-names>A. Tariq</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Таха Асраа Тарик, аспирант кафедры математического и программного обеспечения информационных систем</p><p>ул. Победы, д. 85, г. Белгород 308015</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Taha A. T., Post-Graduate Student of the Department of Mathematical and Software of Information Systems</p><p>85 Pobeda Str., Belgorod 308015</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">huthaifa.mohammed@uomosul.edu.iq</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Константинов</surname><given-names>Игорь С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Konstantinov</surname><given-names>I. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Игорь С. Константинов, доктор технических наук, профессор института информационных технологий и управляющих систем</p><p>ул. Костюкова, д. 85, г. Белгород 308012</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Igor Sergeyevich Konstantinov, Doctor of Sciences (Engineering), Professor of the Institute of Information Technologies and Control Systems</p><p>46 Kostyukova Str., Belgorod 308012</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">1591248@bsu.edu.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Белгородский национальный исследовательский университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Belgorod State National Research University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Белгородский государственный технологический университет им. В. Г. Шухова</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Belgorod State Technological University named after V. G. Shukhov</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>15</day><month>05</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>15</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>170</fpage><lpage>179</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Таха А.T., Константинов И.С., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Таха А., Константинов И.С.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Taha A.T., Konstantinov I.S.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://uprinmatus.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/290">https://uprinmatus.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/290</self-uri><abstract><p>Цель исследования. Пандемия 2019 года значительно изменила жизнь людей и оказала влияние на мировую экономику, увеличив уровень смертности. Актуальность исследования заключается в том, что понимание и контроль за распространением инфекций имеют решающее значение для минимизации их последствий. Цель данного исследования — включить пространственную зависимость в традиционную модель SIR, чтобы расширить её применимость для моделирования процесса распространения вируса.Методы. Методология исследования основана на разработке математической модели, описывающей распространение пандемии как явление бегущей волны. В работе проводится анализ скорости волны в модели, а также используются различные численные методы для получения решений. Новый переменный член добавляется в уравнение для инфицированного населения, и с помощью методов преобразования переменных и линеаризации выводятся аналитические решения. После этого вычисляется и анализируется скорость волны, связанная с распространением инфекции.Результаты подтвердили предыдущие выводы, полученные из анализа временных моделей, что основным фактором, определяющим распространение болезни, является отношение скорости инфицирования к скорости выздоровления. Показано, что снижение коэффициента передачи или увеличение скорости выздоровления замедляет распространение заболевания.Заключение. Наилучшим способом сдерживания распространения вируса является минимизация межличностных контактов или ускорение выздоровления и изоляции пациентов. Это приводит к снижению параметра скорости волны q, который управляет скоростью распространения болезни.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Purpose of research. Pandemic of 2019 has greatly altered human life and affected economies worldwide by increasing death rates. The relevance is understanding and controlling the spread of infections is vital to minimizing its effects. The purpose of the research investigation is to plug spatial dependence into the traditional SIR model to extend its usefulness in modeling the propagation process of the virus.Methods. The methodology is to develop of a mathematical model to represent the pandemic spread as a traveling wave phenomenon. Analysis of the wave speed of the model is made as appropriate as well as the several numerical methods it applied in obtaining solutions. The new variable to the infected population equation is used along with variable transformation techniques and linearization in deriving analytical solutions and then computing and analyzing the wave speed associated with infection spread.Results confirmed the previous outcomes generated by time-dependent models’ analysis that the prime determinant of disease dissemination is the infection-to-recovery rate. It is shown that either transmission coefficient decreases or the recovery rate increases slows down the spread of the disease.Conclusion. As a conclusion, the best possible way to curb its exposure is by minimizing interpersonal interaction (reduction of beta) or by expediting patient recovery and segregation (increase in alpha). It reduces the wave speed parameter q, which controls the rate of propagation of the disease.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>динамика пандемии</kwd><kwd>бегущие волны</kwd><kwd>математическое моделирование</kwd><kwd>модель SIR</kwd><kwd>пространственная зависимость</kwd><kwd>скорость волны</kwd><kwd>стратегии контроля эпидемий</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>pandemic dynamics</kwd><kwd>traveling waves</kwd><kwd>mathematical modeling</kwd><kwd>SIR model</kwd><kwd>spatial dependence</kwd><kwd>wave speed</kwd><kwd>epidemic control strategies</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Данная работа была выполнена в рамках программы «Приоритет 2030» на базе Белгородского государственного технологического университета имени В. Г. Шухова. Работа была выполнена с использованием оборудования Центра высоких технологий БГТУ имени В. Г. Шухова. Данная работа была выполнена в рамках проекта FZWN-2025-0002 на базе Белгородского государственного технологического университета имени В. Г. Шухова. Работа была выполнена с использованием оборудования Центра высоких технологий БГТУ имени В. Г. Шухова.</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">This work was realized in the framework of the Program "Priority 2030" on the base of the Belgorod State Technological University named after V.G. Shukhov. The work was realized using equipment of High Technology Center at BSTU named after V.G. Shukhov. This work was realized in the framework of the project FZWN-2025-0002 on the base of the Belgorod State Technological University named after V.G. Shukhov. The work was realized using equipment of High Technology Center at BSTU named after V.G. 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